I don't often write about politics because mine are wooly at best and extending to wacky. But I have a question that maybe you can help me think through.
Bush issued a 48 hour "get out of Iraq or else" ultimatum to Saddam Hussein today. Bush must think that Hussein's not going to leave because Hussein's repeatedly said he's not going to be exiled. So it's a pretty sure thing that this ulimatum will be ignored.
But what if Hussein, his family and his ministers and generals did go? Then what?
Where would they go? Set up a government in exile in the mountains of Afganistan, maybe? Team up with the other members of the "Axis of Evil" in a remote, hidden headquarters?
What would they do? Gather followers? Build some weapons?Wage a guerrilla war? Form a terrorist cell? (guerrilla vs. terrorst vs. freedom fighter is a blurry line)
Does anyone think that by accepting exile, Hussein's core philosophies and tactics are going to change? It's not like he's going go to Elba and wither away or find a happy like on Niijima, the exiles' island south of Tokyo.
Niijima is a fab place! I'd exile there any day.
Think "peaceful regime change" -- he surrenders power and leaves with his sons, the US moves in and does what it would have done after winning the war, just without all that messy bombing and shooting.
Saddam would still be Saddam, but without all the resources that enable him to do what he does: territory, the aparatus of a state, the military, vast oil wealth, etc. Those would exceed his baggage limit of two checked suitcases and a carry-on, duly screened, etc.
He might attempt to make life difficult for the occupiers, do what he can to sic terrorists on various targets, or attempt to reclaim power later after regrouping. Those threats would be considerably reduced after he has fled with a few necessities.
Don't spend too much energy trying to work this out, because it isn't going to happen. I think Saddam has already said as much.
hi kristen ,
you might find these links interesting :
http://www.disinfopedia.org/wiki.phtml
http://www.geocities.com/alanjpakula/triplecrown.html
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/english/
if what goes around comes around or nemesis prevails like we old europeans like to say there are some rough times ahead for the mall upon the hill . i hope you and tod will be spared . bfn axel
ps: i trust you know salon.com .
in case anyone thinks i watched one x-file to many after visiting ab0ve links : http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/nightline/DailyNews/pnac_030310.html